New crop countings from flowers just started. We will start to receive numbers by the end of this week. Climate conditions seem to go against hazelnut, we will keep you informed.
Compared to the previous season, exports were 19.13% less on a quantity basis. Exports, which startedthe season with 5.97 USD/kg, remained at the same levels for a long time. After November 16, it reached the level of 6.82 USD/kg without slowing down. As a result of our research, we see a high probability of an export increase of at least 10%.
Regarding crop 2022, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry declared their crop estimation as 765.287 tons and Black Sea Exporters’ Union declared as 830.628 tons. We expect that government also will declare their new crop purchase price within this week. Price expectation from government is USD 3/kg as equivalent.
Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced that they will sell 20.000 tons of inshell hazelnuts from their stocks that crop 2021 (17.000 kgs Levant quality and 3.000 kgs Giresun quality). The price for Giresun and Levant quality inshell hazelnuts has been determined as TL 39/kg.
TMO stopped its purchases as of the end of December. In total, they purchased around 70.000tons of in-shell hazelnuts. TL/USD rate moved in a very volatile structure in December. If certain stability is achieved in the parity, we predict that prices will be in the range of 6000-6500 USD/Ton.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced purchase prices of hazelnuts for the year 2021 as Levant quality TL 26,5/kg and Giresun quality TL 27/kg, based on 50 percent yield. The prices announced by TMO were realized in the same line with our market forecasts. For this reason, it seems that we will not make any increase or decrease in our daily prices for crop 2021, except for the USD/TL currency difference.
Our expectation is that there will be 250.000 - 260.000 tons of export at the end of the season. Since TMO is open purchasing until the end of April, we estimate that the USD price level will be between 6.600/ ton and 6.900/ton at least until the end of April. Our expectation for TL/USD parity is in the range of 7,30 -7,80.
In 17.08.2020, crop 2019 prices for natural hazelnut 11-13mm started at the level of 6.630 USD/tons (5.600 Euro/tons). Today 11-13mm Natural hazelnut kernels prices DDU Europa delivery 7.090 USD/Tons (6.050 Euro/tons) levels.
Finally, Ferrero has declared inshell hazelnut purchasing price today. Levant Quality inshell 50% yield TL 21,25/kg. Giresun quality inshell 50% yield TL 21,50/kg
Hazelnut Exporters union harvest counting team forecasted 617,000 tons to be in the Middle and Eastern Black Sea 419,000 tons to the Western Black Sea 198,000 tons.